New La Nina-esque winter outlook paints cold, snowy picture for Northwest
Scott Sistek 2 min read
First snow of season falls at Chinook Pass. (Photo: Tim Clifton Photography)
If snow and rain fans were given a blank easel and could craft a winter outlook map from NOAA, it may look pretty close to the real deal issued Thursday.
Both the new 90-day forecasts for December through February and January through March now have moderately strong signals for cooler than average temperatures and above average precipitation.
While for many of those dates, that would just mean a lot of extra days of chilly rain, it *does* up the odds a bit for more frequent chances of lowland snow.
And it also portends good news for the Cascades snowpack this year. So even if the census of local snowmen dotting the lowlands doesn’t end up more than a few (or any), the skiers and snowboarders at least have to like their chances for plenty of new powder days on the slopes.
VIVA LA NINA!
The updated bluer maps were expected as NOAA had announced last week that La Niña conditions were now present in the tropical Pacific. The cooling of the ocean waters there usually sets in motion a change in the global weather patterns that for the Pacific Northwest is two-fold.
One: It pushes the polar jet stream north into Alaska and the Yukon, then drives south into the northern tier of the U.S., carrying chillier air along for the ride.
Meanwhile, the aptly named Pacific Jet that steers the storms out in… the Pacific… usually will end it pointing squarely at the Northwest for large portions of winter. Put the two together and you get cooler and wetter conditions, and voila, a La Niña forecast.
WHAT DO YOU HAVE FOR ME IF I DON’T LIKE COOL AND WET (OR SNOWY) WINTERS?
There are some important caveats to this outlook in that La Niña and these winter outlooks represent a “weighing of the dice” toward cool and wet, but some La Niña winters can be overwhelmed by other factors that can leave us mild or dry or both. (We call those “La Bummer” years.)
Also, even in La Niña winters that follow the script, there are still dry periods — and can sometimes even be mild stretches. I’m sure there will be a few sunny (ish) days mixed in there. You’ll be able to walk the dogs on occasion without having to be covered in 4 layers of GoreTex.
Just…keep that GoreTex handy. And the ski wax.
(Top story photo courtesy: Tim Clifton Photography)