Increasingly stormy weather on tap as week progresses

Seattle weather this week may be best described as “sooner the better” as far as any outdoor plans or activities go. The weather is staring on a literal “high” note as high(ish) pressure makes a brief visit Tuesday, but we’re on a downward slope of clouds and then rain as we head through the week.

So Tuesday is your day to get all your outdoor stuff if you can, or sneak in that lunch break walk. There will even be a bit of sunshine in the afternoon with temperatures getting into the low 60s. (Remember when 62 sounded absolutely frigid? Like…two weeks ago? Now it’s like: Hey, that’s not too bad. We hit 70 and 75 on Oct. 6th and 7th and it has not been warmer than 62 since. Fall light switch: Flipped)

A Seattle-rain-type front will move through on Wednesday afternoon and evening, and by that I mean it’ll just bring a typical Seattle light-ish rain that you barely notice and will REALLY illustrate who the visitors are in town by who is carrying an umbrella.

The front will actually pull in a little mild air ahead of it to where we might eke into the mid-60s before the rain hits. For the record, that is still not considered shorts weather 🙂 Some showers linger into Thursday but overall not much of a notable weather day besides mostly cloud and scattered showers.

WHAT ABOUT THIS STORM ON FRIDAY THAT’S BEEN PERCOLATING ON MY SOCIAL MEDIA FEEDS?

The largest weather headlines of the week are indeed reserved for Friday and the weekend but while it’s looking like the most active weather of the week, it’s not looking too impactful.

We’ve been talking about potential for an atmospheric river-type storm on Friday that has tapped into some subtropical moisture and is heading toward the Pacific Northwest.

It IS still set to bring us steady moderate-to-heavy rains that I will relent and say will raise the threshold before umbrella embarrassment sets in. It looks like about an inch or so in the lowlands Friday and as much as 2-4 inches in the Olympics and North Cascades.

That’s a decent amount of rain but at this point doesn’t look like a river flooding amount of rain. (With autumn leaves getting to full drop mode, there could be randomized street flooding where storm drains get clogged.). The good news is that this storm is looking more progressive than it was when it was in the longer range models last week (as in, is moving faster and not lingering as long) and that should keep rain totals from getting extreme.

Thus, the only impacts expected for Friday will be extra-snarled commutes, unhappy pets on their walks, and those difficult choices of do I dare turn in my Seattle card and grab the umbrella, or just realize my shoes are going to be soaked either way so just go for the whole Soaked Seattleite package?

It’ll also be breezy to windy at times Friday afternoon and evening. We might eke out the minimum criteria for a Wind Advisory (45 mph gusts) but the bulk of the models are keeping peak gusts in the 30-35 mph range — do able but leaves won’t be happy.

WHAT’S UP FOR THIS WEEKEND?

We’ll see plenty of scattered showers hang out through the weekend but the main attention shifts from rain to breezy winds and potential for mountain snow.

Long range models do still try to spin up a low pressure center and roll it into the Washington or Oregon coast sometime this weekend. They’re still quite variable on where and how strong.

So far thankfully we’re still not seeing anything alarming or major — more so just still some potential for usual-type windy weather at some point this weekend so stay tuned there. Some of the models push the system into Oregon at which point it won’t have much wind impact here.

The main calling card of the weekend then just may be that much cooler air pours in behind those storms and snow levels will drop below pass level later in the weekend. Those of you looking to get over the mountains, especially Sunday, should keep an eye there.

But for the Seattle and Puget Sound lowlands, it’ll just be a chilly, breezy-to-windy and showery weekend. Highs by Sunday and Monday will only be in the low 50s. (Heh, 6 weeks from now we’ll be: “Remember when low 50s seemed absolutely frigid?”