‘Historically’ dry November day for Seattle

But getting a dry November 19th? Now that’s something.

If you were to place a bet on the day most likely to rain in Seattle, Nov. 19 would be your best choice. It has rained more frequently on that date than any other in Seattle weather history.

Going back to 1894, Seattle has had measurable rain 95 times on the date — good for 73% odds. It’s what I have called before the “Worst day to plan an outdoor wedding in Seattle.”

The last time it didn’t rain on this date was 2022, then 2018 before that.

SO, GUARANTEE RAIN NEXT YEAR?

If you lost your bet this year, double down for 2026.  Looking back at all of Seattle’s 131 years of weather history, the odds of getting back-to-back dry years are about once a century.  It was dry on Nov. 19, in 1895 and 1896 — ironically two of the first three years of Seattle’s weather records. Early Seattleites must have thought Nov. 19 was a respite from the rain.

Wrong.

The only other instance of consecutive dry years was 1939-1941 — THREE years in a row! Surely, it’s a trend!

Wrong.

We’re now coming up on 100 years since the last instance.

WHAT OTHER DAYS SHOULD I AVOID OUTDOOR WEDDINGS?

Good question.  Second place is Nov. 15 at 91…now 92 years with rain after it did rain on Saturday. But outdoor weddings probably not super popular.

Third place is a tie. One date is Dec. 29 (89 days – 68% chance) — OK you’re likely inside anyway, that’s like the coldest time of year.

The other date is… Uh oh.

February 14.

Surely only a few get married on that date? It’s just Oregon’s birthday right? Oh, something else?

Well, they DO say rain on your wedding day is good luck!

By the way, if you are aiming for a dry outdoor wedding — or any other event — August 4th is the day to target! Just 8 days with measurable rain in the past 131 years.