Active pattern returns later this week as November remembers it’s November

Halloween may be well over, but November seemed to want to still partake by spending Sunday dressed up as September. Mid-upper 60s?!?

But the mask is coming off, and November is heading back to its usual self.  Right now the weather pattern is trending more “active” but perhaps still a notch below “stormy”, at least for now.

No worries about either term for the next couple days as Tuesday will chalk up another dry day (albeit a little foggy in the morning) and then light rain at times mixed with some early fog on Wednesday as the next storm  system approaches.

That storm arrives for Thursday and Friday. It’s *technically* another atmospheric river type storm as it has a little tropical moisture entrained, but it is on the lighter side.

The larger story is watching where a developing minor to moderate area of low pressure will be rolling around off the coast that would bring some blustery winds to the south of where it comes inland.

The forecast charts this week have been a bit uncertain in where the low will go — pretty much anywhere from up here to Northern California, but as of Tuesday, the leading contender now is around the Oregon Coast.

It would not be significant winds, especially by Oregon Coast standards, but on current track could make for a blustery Thursday evening around Portland and maybe into Southwestern Washington.

If the storm ends up tracking farther north, it’ll make it windier up here but again even if the brunt of this storm comes through, isn’t looking too concerning. Mostly just would do a good job finishing off the straggling leaves. The ensemble models, which run several forecasts off the same data with minor tweaks to get a good idea of how prone the forecast is to errors, are unimpressed with any Seattle wind, only showing 2 out of 50 forecasts indicating 45+ mph gusts (and 48/50 showing less.)

But if the storm stays in Oregon, we even subtract that little bit of wind and it’s just rainy Thursday and Friday.  In the lowlands we’re looking at maybe up to an inch of rain or so. Another cooler system races in on that one’s heels later Friday that could do a better job of getting some fresh mountain snow.

Yet another system is aiming for the weekend for renewed rain and breezy winds — what, you thought you could get TWO dry weekends in November?!? Light rain at times in the offing for Saturday with steadier, wetter rains for Sunday. Long range forecasts suggest a continued active pattern into next week with perhaps storms also better set up to bring mountain snow.

Thus, maybe November is still eager to dry on its December mask?

P.S. A heart-felt Happy Veterans Day to those who serve, have served and those who support them. We have lots of veterans in my family, my father served in the Coast Guard, his father flew in World War II and Korea with the Air Force, and my mom’s father served time in the Navy.