Storm should help Seattle avoid setting 39-year record for driest October
Scott Sistek 
GOES-18 image of swirling low pressure center off the Washington coast on Oct. 24, 2026. (NOAA / CIRA / RAAM-B)
There are quite a few things from 1987 best left to stay relegated to the dustbin of history, such as the “Black Monday” stock crash, the Ishtar movie, Spuds MacKenzie, that high school yearbook photo catching me on a “bad hair day” (don’t ask me to single out which one, any will do)…
And the “autumn month it nearly forgot to rain in Seattle.” October 1987 only managed 0.31” of rain in Seattle — 0.23” of it in one day (naturally, it was Halloween.)
This October was looking like it was well on pace to potentially break the record with only 0.08” of rain through the first 23 days and our only “hope” for rain was a storm system that a warm front, but cold feet and was set to go into reverse off the coast before bringing too much rain.
But the storm has since found its courage, and is instead now set to hang around the region and bring a genuinely rainy period to Seattle. It should be enough to safely get Seattle out of record-dry territory, and leaving the old record still stuck in the past with its acid wash denim and Cabbage Patch Kids.
Rain was already here along the coast and North Sound on Saturday with a few other sprinkles around Western Washington, but the storm’s slow-moving front will push into Seattle and the Puget Sound area Saturday night, bringing several hours of steady rains into Sunday afternoon.
How much rain? There is still some disagreement in the models. The European model has about a third of an inch, the American GFS has about just under a half inch, while the HRRR hourly forecast model shows about 2/3” to 3/4” of rain in the I-5 corridor by early Sunday afternoon.
Any of those get us out of record territory, and if the heavier scenario comes to pass, 2026 will not only avoid being the driest October on record, but should even escape the Top 3 (0.72” in 1972. Hey, that was the year we lost the October rain battle to Las Vegas. Still looks like we’re going to lose again this year — we need at least 1.19” but we’re rallying!)
IS IT GOING TO BE WINDY AT ALL?
Not really. This is still a bit of an unusual storm in that it will swing a front through which is the initial source of rain, but the center of the storm is forecast to still remain just off the coast through the weekend.
And it’s not a very potent center — even the gusts near the storm center over the ocean are peaking around 40 mph. We’re expecting gusts in Seattle in the 20s to maybe low 30s.
WHAT ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS GAME?
This is the one time you’re glad they put the Seahawks as the Sunday evening game because the rain looks to taper off as the front moves away by about 12-2 p.m. in Seattle. Still a chance of a few showers, but otherwise just cool and a little breezy.
DOES OCTOBER THEN TURN INTO… OCTOBER?
While the storm front will come through on Sunday, the storm itself looks to meander off the Washington and Oregon coast into early next week, weakening as it hangs around. It’ll still be close enough to toss frequent showers our way on Monday and Tuesday as what’s left of the storm looks to move through the Northwest.
The forecast for the rest of next week is trending wetter than it had been earlier as well. The forecast had been in flux because forecast models don’t do well when storms get cut off from the flow and for a long time it looked like this current storm was going to be stuck meandering off the coast for days.
But now that the storm is instead getting on out of here, the models are a bit more clear-eyed and what they see is… more rain.
Another weather system looks to drop into the area from B.C. on Tuesday night into Thursday. This one actually maybe — MAYBE — bring a first decent dollop of mountain snow.
WHAT ABOUT HALLOWEEN?
So far… not like 1987. Looking at the European model ensemble runs (which take 50 versions of the forecast model with slight tweaks in the calculations), 33 of the 50 model runs show dry weather, and another 16 of them show 0.09” or less. That leaves just 2 out of 50 predicting a washout, so hopefully you can stick with your original costume.
Beyond that, November does look like it could begin with another bout of rainy weather. So if you’ve got kids in school, be sure they keep that extra hair gel handy — you never know when you’re going to run into those sneaky yearbook photographers.