Back-to-back storms bring coastal flooding threat, landslide risks

It’s another stormy day with plenty of rain, some gusty winds, and of particular note, some dangerous coastal flooding and high surf.

But I have an early morsel for those eager to wring out a bit: If we take the current 7 day forecast in Seattle and instead imagine it as a 7-game World Series-type weather icon battle on the graphic between rain and sun — rain might still be favored to win the series, but sun might at least take it to a Game 7.

Rain is just about guaranteed to race out to a 2-0 lead as we have two storms in rapid succession plowing their way through Western Washington Wednesday and Thursday.

Wednesday’s storm is very wet, but otherwise rather routine for the Seattle/Puget Sound area— about 0.50-1.00” of rain in the lowlands by the end of the day, even rainier as usual on the coast and in the mountains. Wind gusts will be around 25-35 mph.

(Don’t forget if reading this in western Oregon or in the Portland/Vancouver area there is also a minor threat for isolated strong to even severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes Wednesday.)

SUN REMAINS HEAVY UNDERDOG FOR THURSDAY

Thursday’s storm looks even a touch wetter and windier — especially in the mountains as we take more of the brunt of the jet stream, which will squeeze out more rainfall up there.

The Skokomish River is on Flood Watch, and those along the coast and Northwest Interior may see enough wind gusts of 45 mph to warrant a Wind Advisory, but nothing too impactful expected.  There is a low risk of isolated thunderstorms across the region in the afternoon too, so keep that in mind.

It could also be enough rain to trigger some landslides in vulnerable places- Seattle’s at just over 3.5” since late October; more has fallen in the mountains.

But the largest impact from the storms remain over on the coast, where we have a confluence of events that will conspire coastal flooding:

• High astronomical “king tides” as the sun, (full) moon and Earth align for a slightly stronger tidal pull
• Strong winds along and offshore of the coast pushing water toward shore
• Very high surf reaching 20-24 feet on Thursday adding more powerful waves and onshore energy
• Low atmospheric pressure, which gently “pulls” water levels a little higher.

All together it means a Coastal Flood Warning for the North Coast (especially around La Push ) and the Grays Harbor Inlet area (Westport is particularly vulnerable) for floods of 2-3 feet above tide level during periods of high tides — set for midday Wednesday and Thursday.

Tides are higher Wednesday and drop a little Thursday, but Thursday features higher surf at that 20-24 feet that will make up the difference so it’s a two-day event over there.

So Thursday and Friday are blowout victories for the rain icons.  Rain is up 2-0.

CAN SUN JUST LIKE, I DON’T KNOW, SHUFFLE THE LINEUP OR SOMETHING FRIDAY?

Thursday’s storm will linger into the first little bit of Friday as scattered showers but the day will feature drying.

I just looked on my app and it actually has a peek of sun on Friday. Let’s call it a late rally for sun as the rain’s bullpen has a rough outing. Rain is still up 2-1 though….

THE SUN FINALLY GETS COMPETITIVE JUST IN TME FOR THE WEEKEND!

Would you believe we haven’t had a dry weekend since late September? Sun has been in a slump but what a rally as both Saturday AND Sunday are looking dry. In Seattle. On both November 8 AND 9.

This is your weekend to get those outdoor jaunts — still chilly in the morning, and still… dark in the evening, but midday is go-go-go!  Sun is miraculously ready to snatch the series away with a 3-2 lead going into Monday and…

GAME OVER

Periods of light rain return early next week, though as a whole the overall pattern is much less stormy for a while.

It’s not the blowout wins of Wednesday and Thursday but rain icons have taken Day 6… and Day 7. NOAA’s long-range 6-10 day, 8-14 day, and even 3-4 week outlooks still paint the Pacific Northwest in likely above-average rainfall.

Ironically our pattern has become the Los Angeles Dodgers of rainy weather….